Title: WHOSE PERCEPTION IS IT? RESPONDENT-LEVEL AND INSTITUTIONAL-LEVEL EVIDENCE ON INTERNAL CONTROL QUALITY IN MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS

Authors: Tuhin Mukherjee and Anirban Sarkar

Abstract: This study investigates the presence of lead–lag relationships in selected securities in the Indian stock market by examining whether the direction of price movement on one trading day is systematically followed by a similar movement on the subsequent trading day. The analysis covers eleven securities representing major banking, information technology, energy, consumer goods, and gold-related segments: HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, ONGC, Nippon India ETF Gold BeES, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Wipro, Nestle India, and UCO Bank. Daily closing prices were observed from 31 August to 30 September 2026, with 31 August serving as the reference date for calculating subsequent daily returns. The dataset comprises 231 security-day observations and 220 usable consecutive-day return pairs. Of the 231 daily observations, 87 recorded positive returns, 142 recorded negative returns, and 2 remained unchanged. The direction of returns persisted from one trading day to the next in 97 out of 220 pairs, representing approximately 44.1% of the observations. Furthermore, the pooled correlation between the previous day’s return and the subsequent day’s return was approximately −0.23, indicating a modest inverse relationship rather than evidence of consistent directional continuation. At the security level, all eleven securities closed below their respective 31 August levels by the end of the observation period, although the magnitude of decline varied considerably. HDFC Bank registered the smallest change (−0.04%), whereas TCS (−14.53%), Wipro (−14.09%), Nestle India (−12.46%), and Infosys (−12.32%) experienced the largest declines. At the aggregate level, the simple average movement of the eleven securities continued in the same direction on only 8 of the 20 day-to-day comparisons. Overall, the findings provide limited evidence of a dependable next-day directional continuation effect and suggest that the previous trading day’s movement alone is insufficient to predict the direction of the following session. The contemporaneous market environment—including elevated crude oil prices, global interest-rate concerns, and sector-specific pressures—provides important contextual factors for interpreting the observed market movements and highlights the role of broader information in shaping short-term price dynamics.

Keywords: Indian stock market; daily returns; previous-day effect; banking; information technology; crude oil; Gold ETF; investor sentiment.

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