Title: EFFECTS OF OIL REVENUE ON GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA USING CORRUPTION CONTROL AS A MODERATING VARIABLE

Authors: Johnson Omoniyi Duduyegbe, Oluwapelumi Bunmi Owolabi, Temitope Adedayo Abe and Temidayo Owolabi

Abstract: Effective revenue generation and corruption control play crucial roles in enhancing economic development, government performance, and citizen welfare. However, their full potential to positively impact government expenditure performance in Nigeria remains a concern. This study aimed to assess the effects of oil revenue and corruption control on government expenditure performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined how these factors influence government expenditure, considering the moderating effect of corruption control on the relationship between oil revenue and government expenditure. Inflation and foreign exchange rates were included as control variables. A longitudinal and time-series research design was used, with data collected from secondary sources, including published annual reports spanning 30 years (1993-2022). The data were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the regression equations. The results indicated that oil revenue (β = 0.96879; p-value = 0.000) had a significant positive effect on government expenditure. Additionally, the moderating effect of corruption control (β = 0.956351; p-value = 0.000) on the relationship between oil revenue and government expenditure was significantly negative. The study concluded that both oil revenue and corruption control significantly influence government expenditure performance, with oil revenue having a positive impact and corruption control a negative one. The study recommends reducing dependence on oil revenue, improving the collection and management of non-oil revenue, strengthening oversight functions, and implementing effective corruption control measures to achieve prudent debt management, effective fiscal strategies, and efficient government spending.

Keywords: Corruption, Foreign exchange rate, Government expenditure, Inflation rate, Public debt, Oil revenue.

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